X-Nico

3 unusual facts about prediction market


Prediction market

In John Brunner's 1975 science fiction story The Shockwave Rider there is a description of a prediction market that he called the Delphi Pool.

Hollywood Stock Exchange creator Max Keiser suggests that not only are these markets no more predictive than their established counterparts such as the New York Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange, but that reducing the unpredictability of markets would mean reducing risk and, therefore, reducing the amount of speculative capital needed to keep markets open and liquid.

Around 1990 at Project Xanadu, Robin Hanson used the first known corporate prediction market.


FanDuel

After taking in $1.2 million in venture capital funding from Pentech Ventures and Scottish Enterprise on January 14, 2009, Hubdub did an internal review and decided to shift focus from its web-based prediction market game to a web-based daily fantasy sports premium game.

Futarchy

Futarchy is a form of government proposed by economist Robin Hanson, in which elected officials define measures of national welfare and prediction markets are used to determine which policies will have the most positive effect.


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