Until Election Day in November of the same year, the researchers collected data from 268 polls, 10 quantitative models, and 246 daily market prices from the Iowa Electronic Markets vote-share market.
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In their IJF paper, the PollyVote team discusses several reasons why this might be the case: (1) people have difficulties to understand the benefits of combining, (2) people wrongly believe that they can identify the best forecast, and (3) people think that the method of calculating averages is too simple.