On the death of John Paul II, the Financial Times gave the odds of Ratzinger becoming pope as 7–1, the lead position, but close to his rivals on the liberal wing of the church.
In the days prior to the 2013 conclave, the Vaticanologist John L. Allen, Jr. viewed Tauran as a "long-shot" papabile.
Along with Italian journalist Frances Amrogetti, he decided to write the biography when Bergoglio got 40 votes at the 2005 Papal conclave, the highest number of votes ever obtained by a Latin American papabile.