According to ABC psephologist Antony Green, the seat should have been recovered by the Liberals in 2007 but was narrowly retained by Labor.
After its creation prior to the 2008 election, ABC electoral commentator Antony Green calculated a theoretical margin of 10.6% favouring Labor over the Liberal Party in two party preferred terms.
Manison managed to pick up a 12.4 percent swing--ccording to ABC election analyst Antony Green, the largest against a first term government in Australia in over twenty years.
ABC political analyst Antony Green described Oakeshott as the "clear favourite", and "highly likely" to win the by-election.
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